XRP, 강력한 ETF 유입과 규제 명확성 속 저항선 시험

XRP Updates and Market Resistance

As of April 23, 2026, XRP is trading at approximately $1.4379, facing resistance at the $1.45 level amid strong spot ETF inflows and regulatory clarity. The U.S. spot XRP ETFs have seen cumulative inflows surpassing 1.5 billion dollars, and daily XRPL transactions have reached record highs, which signals fundamental improvements. However, the market participants' focus is shifting from short-term price movements to structural changes such as institutional adoption and ecosystem expansion.

Current Price and 200-Day SMA

Latest data from CoinMarketCap indicates that XRP is trading at $1.4379 as of April 23 at 6:58 PM (UTC), with a market capitalization of approximately 88.53 billion dollars, ranking 4th in the cryptocurrency market, and a circulating supply of 61.57 billion XRP. The fully diluted market cap stands at about 143.79 billion dollars.

The 24-hour trading volume is 2.645 billion dollars, up 3.77% from the previous day. The 1-hour change is +0.32%, while the 24-hour and 7-day changes are -0.86% and -0.47%, respectively. However, over 30 and 60 days, XRP has seen an increase of +3.55% and +3.41%, indicating a gradual recovery.

A key resistance factor is the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently around $1.89, significantly diverging from the current price. Given its large market cap exceeding 88 billion dollars, substantial capital inflow is required to break through this level, which acts as a short-term hurdle.

4-Hour Chart Displays Cup-and-Handle Pattern

Technical analysis suggests a classic cup-and-handle pattern forming on the 4-hour chart. The cup ranges from the March low of approximately $1.15 to the resistance area at $1.50-$1.55, with the handle forming between $1.38-$1.43. The projected price target upon pattern completion is around $1.70.

The Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are compressed between $1.3932 and $1.4331, and the MACD is nearing a bullish cross. However, liquidations of long positions amounted to 2.14 million dollars, significantly outweighing the 291.75 thousand in shorts, with open interest decreasing by 2.6% to $2.58 billion, indicating that short-term investor sentiment has not fully recovered.

Significant ETF Inflows and Institutional Positions

A key variable for XRP's price movement is the U.S. spot XRP ETF, which as of early March 2026, has accumulated over 1.5 billion dollars, with 769 million XRP in custody. Notably, there were no net outflow days in its inaugural month, reflecting strong institutional demand.

Currently, the ETF's total net assets exceed 1 billion dollars, with daily inflows of approximately 2.42 million dollars. Goldman Sachs holds a 153.8 million dollar position in XRP ETFs, highlighting increasing institutional participation and suggesting XRP's inclusion as a portfolio component beyond speculative assets.

XRPL and Real-World Tokenization Growth

On-chain metrics have markedly improved. On March 15, XRPL reached 3 million daily transactions, denoting increased network utility. Real-World Asset Tokenization (RWA) has surpassed 474 million dollars, and RLUSD stablecoin's market cap has exceeded 1.5 billion dollars, demonstrating rapid growth.

Ripple's April 17 updates emphasize expanding institutional adoption, enhancing XRPL utility, and ETF growth as crucial to a robust infrastructure thesis, rather than short-term price pumps. This indicates Ripple's focus on sustainable growth through ecosystem development.

Regulatory Developments and Long-Term Outlook

Regulatory changes also positively impact XRP's outlook. The SEC dropped appeals against Ripple on August 7, 2025, and clarified token taxonomy on March 17, 2026, categorizing digital commodities, stablecoins, and securities, and alleviating concerns about delisting.

The SEC's token classification offers legal stability, strengthening XRP's position as a digital commodity. This regulatory clarity may lower entry barriers for institutional investors.

Nonetheless, geopolitical risks and macroeconomic factors continue to drive market volatility. Despite a 26.07% drop over 90 days, expanding ETF demand, enhanced XRPL ecosystem, and regulatory clarity collectively bolster the medium-to-long-term investment thesis.